Rafael Nadal lost to Robin Soderling in four sets, his first defeat at the French Open. That makes Roger Federer the happiest man in Paris and the odds on favorite to win his first French Open. Before we hand him the trophy, remember that Roger isn’t without cracks on this surface. He was humiliated by Nadal in Paris last year and he’s now feeling the pressure to make this – his last, best chance – count.
Where does the upset rank? Nadal-to-win-the-French was as big a lock as there is in any sport at the moment. Four titles in a row and never losing a match in Paris is only the beginning (!!) Consider that Nadal did not drop a set in 2007 or 2008 and you’ll start to understand his dominance. His physical prowess – the ability to grind people in to dust I’m always writing about – made it seemingly impossible to take him in best of five. That’s why everyone says losing to the #23 seed is one of the biggest upsets ever in Paris. You certainly have to go back at least as far as Chang defeating Lendl to even be close. I think at the French this takes the cake.
What the hell happened out there? I’m at a loss to explain what happened to Rafa. He seemed out of sorts, but Soderling took it to him big time by essentially going for broke. He had twice as many errors, but twice as many winners as Nadal.
Going for broke or playing aggressively against Nadal would certainly be my strategy even before today. Andy Roddick has had a fair amount of success against Nadal by doing exactly that. I suggested that Federer emulate Pete Sampras by playing with so much power and aggression that Nadal doesn’t get to touch the ball. So that part of the playbook is nothing new.
What’s new is that the strategy actually worked for someone. When it comes to playing with firepower and aggression, it’s easier said than done. Normally Nadal can’t be beaten on slow court because he will just defy his opponent’s attempt to hit winners. He will out-hustle and out-run his competitors. Moreover, Nadal has improved his game so that he can play aggressively and hit buckets of winners himself, on every surface.
But as Martina Navratilova pointed out on the Tennis Channel, when Soderling attacked, Nadal did not come forward into the court to take the angles away from him. Hel went backwards, playing even more defensively. His choice to play that way is puzzling. This was an uncreative, almost unenergetic Nadal. I continue to wonder if he’s nursing a secret injury. He’s the type of guy who would sweat out a stress fracture for twelve weeks and never let you know. But the pressure may be cracking the egg a little too.
His fellow pros hate Soderling. John McEnroe and Martina agreed Soderling is unpopular in the locker room and that he likes being disliked. McEnroe suggested that perhaps Nadal was a little off because he can’t stand Robin Soderling. That’s not the whole explanation – Nadal kicked Soderling’s ass two weeks ago in Rome (losing just one game). But Nadal gets along with everyone… except this guy. No one likes Soderling in the locker room and he had a run-in with Nadal a few years ago that left Nadal seething with hate. According to Jon Wertheim:
When they played at Wimbledon in 2007, Soderling was mocking Nadal’s mannerism and he had some unflattering things to say about Nadal afterwards. He was sort of mocking Nadal’s habits. You don’t really do what Soderling did, considering how good Nadal is.
But Nadal, afterwards, basically said this guy will have to justify for this in the afterlife. He basically said this guy was doomed to hell, which is sort of a weird thing to say, but particularly for Nadal, who pretty much goes out of his way to say nice things about everyone. So I do wonder — and this is the kind of thing players will never admit to — but I do wonder if the personal history had anything to do with Nadal not having it today,
I don’t believe for a second that this is Soderling’s breakthrough. He’s one of those guys who hangs in the top 30 because he’s talented, but he’s usually out of shape, injured or indifferent. You never know what you’re going to get. He could easily lose in straight sets in his next match.
Now what? As for the rest of the draw, things now get really interesting Andy Murray could make the final now that Rafa is gone. You’re not gonna like it (since everyone hates) Nikolay Davydenko, but he could win this thing.
Monday’s popcorn match is the pure athleticism of Gael Monfils v. Andy Roddick. The winner has a real shot at a semifinal…or more? Great to see Andy making the second week in Paris. He is not a bad clay court performer, collecting five titles on clay so far, but he’s never shown himself in Paris until this tournament. Andy is in a great mental space right now with his game on the upswing, a new level of fitness and the all-important new hot swimsuit model wife.
Boy, Wimbledon just got really, really interesting.
Passing Shots 
Posted on June 1, 2009
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